A Bad Night For Democrats?

I live for this kind of evening.

Here at 4:37 PM Pacific Time—a few minutes after the close of polls in Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia—I'm watching non-stop election coverage. I'll be up until the House and Senate are decided, or 3 am—whichever comes first. Like Nancy Pelosi, I am growing flushed with excitement as the road to victory for the Democrats seems long and safe. After three heartbreaking elections, this feels good.

When I say heartbreaking, I mean it. In 2000, 2002, and 2004, America broke my heart. Each time my disappointment with my fellow countrymen and my alienation grew. Tonight, they might send me roses and a Hallmark card.

So with all this good news, how come the savvy political part of me is worried ... worried about the kind of landslide night, the kind of Democratic tidal wave I desperately hope for?

What's this contradiction all about?

Ask a Republican.

After enjoying total control of our elected government for four years and the Presidency for six, Republicans are choking on their own success. Oh sure, don't get me wrong, they've made a mess. When I say success, I mean only electoral success (forgetting that I believe the 2000 and 2004 elections were fraudulent).

This is nothing new. Call it the six year itch, call it incumbent backlash, call it whatever you want. This midterm election—enjoying Presidential election turn-out numbers, up to 70% in some states—has been compared to the Republican successes in 1994. Historically, we are told, this is not unprecedented.

Nor is the impact on the Presidential election only two years from now. Have no doubt, tomorrow morning it's all about 2008. Smart Democrats like me know tonight is all about 2008 too.

Which is why this could be a bad night. If the Democrats are put in a position to effect change and find that, fighting a Republican senate and President, that change is hard to come by, the American public might not endorse them in the same way during election night 2008.

And how much can the Democrats really do in two years—even with both houses of congress? They can push raising the minimum wage (and they will). They can push a change in the Iraq policy (and they will). They can pressure the executive branch through budgetary control (and they will). But can they really effect noticeable change with a stubborn and partisan, and increasingly powerful, executive branch? Will the American public really see the kind of changes they are voting for tonight?

Their disappointment—fair or otherwise—might cripple the Democrats and allow the Republicans to put someone like John McCain in the Oval Office. A Democratic landslide tonight might make a Presidential win for the Democrats more difficult.